Despite the excitement over the latest lineup of artificial intelligence PCs—which incorporate special chips that boost performance of AI features in applications—evidence is piling up that the near-term outlook for PC demand is deteriorating.
On Wednesday, KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh lowered his 2024 laptop PC unit forecast to 1% year-over-year growth from 3%, after assessing the latest shipment numbers from major notebook makers in Taiwan.
The analyst said laptop shipments for December came in at 13.3 million versus his 14 million estimate, citing a weaker-than-expected PC recovery. Laptops represent the vast majority of PC sales compared with desktops.
“We view lower December shipments and lower full-year outlook as negative for PC-exposed companies,” he wrote.
It’s another sign that the uplift in PC sales last summer may prove fleeting, as it was primarily driven from retailers and computer sellers restocking their inventories. A sustainable PC recovery could be farther out.
Taiwan original design manufacturers, or ODMs, account for more than 90% of the world’s laptop PC production. These companies make PCs for
Dell,
Lenovo,
HP,
and other computer sellers.
The laptop shipment data aren’t the only indicator for PC demand. In late November,
Dell
Technologies posted disappointing financial results for its latest quarter, saying demand for PCs had weakened in the previous two months. At the time, Dell Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said there was strong demand for AI servers but admitted the company’s prior optimism for a rebound in the traditional PC market proved misplaced.
Write to Tae Kim at tae.kim@barrons.com
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