Nvidia
NVDA
will announce quarterly results next week, and once again the year-over-year comparisons will be astounding because the company continues to dominate the market for graphics processing units (GPU). This was pretty much a new market last year as data centers scrambled to deploy GPUs and related hardware to support their corporate customer’s build-out of artificial-intelligence technology.
Nvidia has an odd fiscal year — Wednesday’s report will be for the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2024, which ended Jan. 29. Since the year-over-year comparison of quarterly results will be so extreme, here’s a look at the past four fiscal quarters’ results, along with consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the quarter to be reported Wednesday. Sales figures are in millions.
| Estimate for quarter ended 1/29/2024 | Quarter ended 10/29/2023 | Quarter ended 07/30/2023 | Quarter ended 04/30/2023 | Quarter ended 01/29/2023 | |
| Sales | $20,374 | $18,120 | $13,507 | $7,192 | $6,051 |
| Change from year-earlier quarter | 237% | 206% | 101% | -13% | -21% |
| Change from previous quarter | 12% | 34% | 88% | 19% | 2% |
| Earnings per share | $4.59 | $3.71 | $2.48 | $0.82 | $0.57 |
| Change from year-earlier quarter | 704% | 1262% | 850% | 29% | -52% |
| Change from previous quarter | 24% | 50% | 202% | 44% | 110% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||
Nvidia’s quarterly sales perked up during the quarter ending April 30, and accelerated from there. For the quarter to be reported next week, the year-over-year sales growth again should be incredibly high. But analysts are expecting the sequential quarterly sales growth to slow to 12% from 34% the previous quarter.
Read: Nvidia is expected to be the best performer in the S&P 500 through 2025, by this measure
Ken Laudan, the portfolio manager of the Buffalo Large Cap Fund BUFEX BUIEX said during an interview with MarketWatch on Thursday that the analysts’ estimates were conservative, because even “hyperscalers” among datacenter operators have been “buying whatever GPUs they can get.”
He expects 2024 to be another year in which the “AI enablers,” or companies making GPUs and related equipment such as Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
TSM,
and cloud services providers (Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN
and Alphabet
GOOGL
) will continue to dominate AI-related investing.
Laudan expects the focus of the AI build-out to shift to “AI adapters” in 2025 or later. He described this group as “software-centric companies that sell an AI large-language model on top of their enterprise or vertical software stack to their clients.” These might include companies such as Adobe Inc.
ADBE,
ServiceNow Inc.
NOW,
Salesforce.com Inc.
CRM,
MongoDB Inc.
MDB
and Snowflake Inc.
SNOW,
he said.
More coverage of Nvidia:
- Nvidia discloses positions in SoundHound AI, Arm — and these other stocks
- Barron’s: How Nvidia Is Playing Apple’s Game, Just a Lot Faster
A warning: Bullish bets on Nvidia, other ‘Magnificent Seven’ members near their most crowded levels in the past year
A different AI play: Cisco could be a late bloomer in generating big AI revenue
Lyft’s (corrected) numbers look good — and Uber makes a big move
On Tuesday, Lyft Inc.
LYFT
reported its fourth-quarter results, which included a typographical error in the company’s outlook for 2024. An initial aftermarket rally sent the shares up as much as 60%, but that gain was trimmed when Lyft issued a correction.
But Lyft’s shares still rose 35% on Wednesday, before rising another 16% on Thursday. The stock was up 27% for 2024 through Thursday, but it has been quite a ride, as you can see in this year-to-date chart for the stock’s return and that of its rival, Uber Technologies Inc.
UBER
:
Bill Peters broke down Lyft’s results.
Lyft might have made its reporting error because of the overuse of jargon, as Therese Poletti explained.
Uber also made a splash this week, announcing a $7 billion share buyback program — the company’s first move to lower its share count.
More: Uber ‘just started to flex its platform muscle’: Can other gig-economy players keep up?
Alarming estimates underline the importance of saving, planning and long-term investing
Brett Arends looked at two formal studies and sets of estimates on the likelihood of people suffering from dementia late in life, and even the more conservative set of numbers is alarming. Here’s a look at the estimates and the potential financial consequences.
More from Brett Arends:
- CPI? Who cares? This is why I love my inflation-protected bonds.
- Do Trump’s NATO comments pose a risk for international stocks — and your 401(k)?
Retirement questions
In her Help Me Retire column, Alessandra Malito had suggestions for a 60-year-old trying to decide whether or not to withdraw $250,000 from a 401(k) account to pay off a mortgage loan.
More help: I’m 58, earn $4,400 a month and want to retire at 60. Is this doable? Do I really need to replace 80% of my income?
Signs of a revival for the IPO market
Rising interest rates put a damper on the market for initial public offerings of stock last year, as fundraising by venture-capital firms plunged. But there are now signs that volume is picking up, as Steve Gelsi reported.
A different way to go public: DWAC up over 15% as it moves to buy Trump Media & Technology Group — but here’s a potential snag
The Big Move
In the Big Move column, Aarthi Swaminathan works through numbers with readers making decisions on buying or selling homes:
- We rent our $750,000 home with a 2.5% mortgage rate for $4,000 a month, but the tenant is leaving. Should we sell now or later?
- We’re in our 60s, retired and make $300,000 in passive income. We want to buy a house for our daughter. What could go wrong?
Here is more real-estate-market coverage:
A contrarian play
Mark Hulbert surveyed investment letters to identify their favorite industry in the stock market right now — you might be surprised.
Something else for contrarians: Growth stocks are outperforming value by widest margin on record. Why that could soon change.
A moon launch and a binary event for a stock
Shares of Intuitive Machines Inc.
LUNR
rose 15% on Thursday, after the successful launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying what is expected to be the first U.S. commercial spacecraft to land on the moon and the first U.S. landing there since 1972. Intuitive Machines built the Nova-C lander, which is expected to touch down near the moon’s south pole next week.
James Rogers has been covering the mission’s milestones since the launch.
Financial crime — a high profile
Lukas I. Alpert writes the Financial Crime column. This week he told the story of Mani Chulpayev, who was able to continue his criminal activity for many years while serving as an informant for investigators and prosecutors.
More from Lukas I. Alpert:
- The lawyer who beat Trump twice stands to make a fortune for doing so
- The checks that led to Trump’s first criminal trial in the ‘hush money’ scandal
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