This is the latest in my series of articles where I provide predictions of annual dividend increases for long-term dividend growth companies. At the end of June, I provided predictions for 18 dividend growth companies that have historically announced annual payout increases in July. In this article, I’ll look at another 14 dividend growth companies that I expect will announce their annual dividend increases in August.
Before I get to this month’s predictions, there were five other long-term dividend growth companies that announced their latest increases in July. Among them were three banking companies:
– Bank of America (BAC) announced an 8.3% increase on July 24th to an annual rate of $1.04. This is the company’s 11th year of dividend growth and gives it a forward yield of 2.77%.
– The next day, Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR), announced a 3.3% increase to an annual rate of $3.80, giving the San Antonio-based banking company a forward yield of 3.49% in its 31st year of dividend growth.
– PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) announced a 3.2% increase for its 15th year of dividend growth. With a new annual dividend of $6.40, the company now has a forward yield of 3.76%.
On top of the banks listed above, Essential Utilities (WTRG) announced a 6.0% increase for its 34th year of dividend growth. The water and natural gas utility now has an annual dividend rate of $1.302 and a forward yield of 3.14%. And industrial company Illinois Tool Works (ITW) announced a 7.1% increase for its 62nd year of dividend growth. The new annual payout of $6.00 gives the company a forward yield of 2.52%.
Here are the results from my predictions from July (the original predictions are available here), followed by my predictions for the dividend increases that I’m expecting to be announced in August:
(All yields are based on stock prices at the market close on Friday, August 2nd.)
Results for Dividend Increase Announcements from July
Community Bank System, Inc. (CBU) – 32 years of dividend growth
Prediction: 1.1 – 3.3% increase to $1.82 – $1.86
Actual: 2.2% increase to $1.84
Forward yield: 3.12%
It’s the 5th year of 4-cent annual dividend growth for the regional banker.
The Clorox Company (CLX) – 48 years
Prediction: 0 – 1.7% increase to $4.80 – $4.88
Actual: 1.7% increase to $4.88
Forward yield: 3.39%
The consumer products company keeps its dividend growth streak going with a minimal boost.
Cintas Corporation (CTAS) – 40 years
Prediction: 13.3 – 16.3% increase to $6.12 – $6.28
Actual: 15.6% increase to $6.24
Forward yield: 0.82%
Despite slowing dividend growth, the business services company continues to reward investors with 10%+ increases.
Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) – 44 years
Prediction: 3.3 – 5.4% increase to $1.90 – $1.94
Actual: 2.2% increase to $1.88
Forward yield: 3.93%
The regional banker’s latest increase is well below its historical average of 5%.
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) – 21 years
Prediction: 2.0 – 2.9% increase to $4.18 – $4.22
Actual: 2.0% increase to $4.18
Forward yield: 3.67%
It’s another year of 2% dividend growth from the North Carolina-based utility.
Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC) – 11 years
Prediction: 6.3 – 12.5% increase to $0.34 – $0.36
Actual: 12.5% increase to $0.36
Forward yield: 1.12%
Although EPS fell due to the economic slowdown, the regional banker rewarded investors with another year of double-digit growth.
Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) – 11 years
Prediction: 6.1 – 9.1% increase to $1.40 – $1.44
Actual: 9.1% increase to $1.44
Forward yield: 0.78%
Dividend growth continues to slow at the logistics company, but investors have reason to be happy with this year’s increase.
McKesson Corporation (MCK) – 17 years
Prediction: 12.1 – 15.3% increase to $2.78 – $2.86
Actual: 14.5% increase to $2.84
Forward yield: 0.45%
This is the 2nd straight year of 14 – 15% dividend growth from the healthcare company.
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) – 11 years
Prediction: 8.2 – 10.6% increase to $1.84 – $1.88
Actual: 10.6% increase to $1.88
Forward yield: 2.66%
The food company hit the high end of my expectations. This year’s increase is consistent with the company’s 5-year compounded growth average of 11%.
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) – 16 years
Prediction: 15.5 – 19.7% increase to $3.28 – $3.40
Actual: 14.8% increase to $3.26
Forward yield: 1.46%
The consulting company’s latest increase is above its 10% long-term compounded growth rate.
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) – 54 years
Prediction: 3.1 – 4.6% increase to $4.04 – $4.10
Actual: Will be announced in August
As several readers commented on last month’s article, Altria usually announces its increase in August.
PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG) – 53 years
Prediction: 6.2 – 9.2% increase to $2.76 – $2.84
Actual: 4.6% increase to $2.72
Forward yield: 2.20%
It’s the 2nd year of 12-cent dividend growth for paint and coatings company PPG.
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) – 21 years
Prediction: 6.5 – 8.4% increase to $2.28 – $2.32
Actual: 8.4% increase to $2.32
Forward yield: 1.16%
As expected, environmental services company Republic Services announced another 8% dividend increase.
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) – 27 years
Prediction: 4.7 – 5.7% increase to $4.44 – $4.48
Actual: 1.9% increase to $4.32
Forward yield: 3.53%
Dividend growth at the food company continues to slow, well below the 10-year average of 6%.
Stanley, Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) – 57 years
Prediction: 1.2 – 2.5% increase to $3.28 – $3.32
Actual: 1.2% increase to $3.28
Forward yield: 3.33%
The tool manufacturer continues to adjust to the global inflationary environment and until Stanley, Black & Decker gets through the rough times, dividend growth will be slow.
Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) – 10 years
Prediction: 5.9 – 8.8% increase to $2.88 – $2.96
Actual: 2.9% increase to $2.80
Forward yield: 2.67%
EPS were down 24% in 2023 at the semiconductor company, resulting in dividend growth slowing to below 3%.
Predictions for Dividend Increases in August
There are 14 long-term dividend growth companies I expect to announce their annual increases in August. First, here is my prediction for one featured company:
Intuit Inc. (INTU) – 13 years of dividend growth
The financial software company is probably best known by consumers for its TurboTax tax preparation software, but Intuit also owns Credit Karma, QuickBooks and automated email software MailChimp. As a software developer, the company is jumping on and benefitting from the artificial intelligence revolution, incorporating the technology into its products.
Intuit breaks its business into three groups: Consumers, Small Business and Self-Employed, Credit Karma, and Pro Tax. The first two segments cover individual consumers and small businesses, respectively. The Credit Karma segment provides personalized finance recommendations for loans, insurance products, and online checking and savings accounts. The Pro Tax segment is geared towards professional accountants.
Over the last several years, Intuit has pushed customers to move to an online subscription service, which is paying off with increased revenues. In 2023, the Small Business and Self-Employed Segment grew by 24%, while the other segments showed single-digit percentage growth. This year, Intuit is seeing double-digit growth across all segments and recently raised full-year guidance from 14% EPS growth to 17%. With continued EPS growth in the teens, the company will be able to reward investors with another increase like last year’s 15% boost.
Prediction: 14.4-16.7% increase to $4.12 – $4.20
Predicted Forward Yield: 0.66-0.67%
Here are my predictions for 13 other long-term dividend growth companies which should announce annual increases in August:
Company | # Yrs | Industry | Prediction (%) | New Annual Rate |
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) | 19 | Insurance – Property & Casualty | 10.6% – 13.4% | $3.14 – $3.22 |
The property and casualty insurer has been good to income investors, with a compounded dividend growth rate of more than 12% over the last decade, not including a special dividend of $2.50 a share paid in February. The company’s EPS fell a bit in 2023 and again in the first quarter of fiscal 2024, but with a payout ratio below 30%, this shouldn’t stop American Financial from announcing another good increase this year. Predicted Forward Yield: 2.46-2.52% | ||||
American States Water Company (AWR) | 70 | Utilities – Regulated Water | 7.2% – 8.5% | $3.28 – $3.32 |
American States Water has two very big things going for it: (1) a compounded growth rate of nearly 10% over the last decade, which is unusual for a utility and (2) a dividend growth history of seven decades, one of the longest among publicly traded companies. The company received approval for a rate increase from California, which resulted in adjusted EPS growth of 27% in 2023. Growth has, naturally, slowed since then, but investors can expect American States Water to start its eighth decade with another 8% increase like last year’s. Predicted Forward Yield: 3.84-3.89% | ||||
BancFirst Corporation (BANF) | 31 | Banks – Regional | 4.7% – 7.0% | $1.80 – $1.84 |
The Oklahoma City-based regional bank has a good dividend growth history, with a decade-long compounded growth rate of 11%. Although dividend growth has been slowing into the upper single digit percentages recently, the company continues to grow its business. EPS were up 10% in 2023. However, BancFirst is cautious about the economy and has been setting aside additional funds in case loans go bad, resulting in first quarter EPS falling by 12%. I think that investors can expect last year’s boost of 7.5% to be the high end of what the company will announce in August. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.78-1.82% | ||||
Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) | 32 | Scientific & Technical Instrumentation | 18.5% – 22.2% | $1.28 – $1.32 |
Badger Meter provides water flow quality testing and monitoring systems. The company has an excellent dividend growth record, capping off a decade-long compounded growth rate of 11% with last year’s 20% boost. Investors can look forward to another year of good income growth. Between completing the acquisition of a remote network monitoring company and growth in its smart water business, the company grew EPS by 40% in 2023 and followed that up with another 50% year-over-year EPS growth in the first quarter of 2024. Badger Meter has virtually no debt and a payout ratio below 35%, so it’ll be another year of 20% dividend growth for investors. Predicted Forward Yield: 0.66-0.68% | ||||
Broadridge Financial Solution, Inc. (BR) | 17 | Information Technology Services | 8.8% – 11.3% | $3.48 – $3.56 |
The financial technology company serves broker-dealers, banks, and asset managers. Broadridge also provides proxy vote and document delivery services for public companies, so if you own stock in public companies or submitted a proxy vote, you’ve probably used Broadridge’s services. The company has a good dividend growth history, compounding its payout by nearly 15% annually over the last decade. However, growth has been slowing over time, with last year’s increase coming down to a still respectably 10% boost. EPS growth hit 9% in 2023 and is expected to come in at 10% this year, giving the company room to maintain its good dividend growth. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.61-1.65% | ||||
CBOE Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) | 14 | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | 10.9% – 12.7% | $2.44 – $2.48 |
CBOE Global Markets provides trading and clearing services for investors. The company went public in 2010 and has grown its payout since then. Income investors have reason to be happy with the company, as it has posted a compounded growth rate of 12% over the last decade. With 13% adjusted EPS growth in 2023 and in the first quarter of 2024, the company should maintain its dividend growth rate. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.26-1.28% | ||||
Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) | 48 | Building Products & Equipment | 12.4% – 14.7% | $3.82 – $3.90 |
Carlisle has spent the last few years transforming itself into a pure play building products company and now has two primary business segments: Carlisle Construction Materials and Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies. EPS fell 14% in 2023 on soft residential demand, but rebounded in the first quarter; the company is now projecting revenue growth of 10% in 2024. Despite the EPS drop last year, Carlisle’s payout ratio of 22% leaves plenty of room for a payout boost in line with the company’s 14% compounded growth rate over the last decade. Predicted Forward Yield: 0.96-0.98% | ||||
Dover Corporation (DOV) | 69 | Specialty Industrial Machinery | 1.0% – 2.0% | $2.06 – $2.08 |
While the diversified industrial manufacturer has a long dividend growth record, it doesn’t have a good growth rate. Over each of the last 4 years, Dover has boosted its annual dividend by only 2 cents, resulting in a 5-year dividend growth rate of 1.3%. Dover’s EPS grew by only 4% in 2023 meaning that, while the company will be able to complete its 7th decade of dividend growth, investors will see another small increase. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.17-1.19% | ||||
Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) | 57 | REIT – Retail | 0.9% – 1.8% | $4.40 – $4.44 |
Federal Realty is a REIT that focuses on coastal suburban properties; most of its properties are located in and right outside Los Angeles and San Francisco, and along the Washington, D.C. to Boston corridor. The company has a slow dividend growth rate and over each of the last 4 years has grown its annual dividend by only 4 cents, giving it a 5-year compounded growth rate of less than 2%. It’ll be another year of slow dividend growth for investors, as funds from operations grew less than 4% in 2023 and are expected to grow at the same rate in 2024. Predicted Forward Yield: 3.91-3.95% | ||||
Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) | 14 | Packaged Foods | 7.1% – 10.3% | $3.34 – $3.44 |
Food additive company Ingredion has seen EPS explode since 2021, with another 26% growth in adjusted EPS in 2023. This type of growth can’t continue forever for any company, and Ingredion is expecting flat to 5% growth in 2024. But with a payout ratio of 33%, investors can expect another year of good income growth, with a boost between the 7% compounded growth rate of the last decade and last year’s 10% increase. Predicted Forward Yield: 2.72-2.80% | ||||
MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) | 48 | Utilities – Regulated Electric | 4.5% – 5.8% | $1.79 – $1.81 |
The Madison, Wisconsin-based electric and natural gas utility grew EPS by 6% in 2023 and followed up with another 8% year-over-year growth in the first quarter of 2024. MGE Energy has compounded its dividend by about 5% over the last decade, and the recent earnings growth supports continued growth at that rate. Predicted Forward Yield: 2.03-2.05% | ||||
Nordson Corporation (NDSN) | 61 | Specialty Industrial Machinery | 3.7% – 5.1% | $2.82 – $2.86 |
Nordson manufactures systems to dispense adhesives, coatings and sealants for a variety of industries including electronics, medical, energy and construction. The company has built a compounded dividend growth record of nearly 15% over the last decade, but with slowing earnings growth in 2022, reduced its dividend growth to less than 5% last year. Earnings continue to be under pressure, with a 4% drop last year being offset by an expected increase of 5% this year. Unfortunately for investors, this won’t allow the company to return to its past glory days of fast dividend growth. Investors can expect another increase like last year’s. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.17-1.18% | ||||
Westlake Corporation (WLK) | 20 | Specialty Chemicals | 4.0% – 6.0% | $2.08 – $2.12 |
The industrial manufacturer has two primary business segments: Performance and Essential Materials, and Housing and Infrastructure Products. Both segments are suffered from lower sales prices and revenues, resulting in an 80% drop in EPS to $3.70. The drop in earnings resulted in Westlake’s payout ratio jumping from 12% to over 50%. While the company still has room to begin its 3rd decade of dividend growth, investors will see dividend growth drop from last year’s 40% boost to something in the mid-single digits. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.52-1.55% |
Summary
Investors saw some very nice increases in July. Business services company Cintas continued its record of increases in the mid-teens. The company was joined by snack food company Mondelez, healthcare company McKesson, and consulting company Marsh & McLennan. Regional banker Greene County Bancorp also continued its pattern of 10%+ increases with a 12.5% boost. There were a few dividend kings that also kept their streaks alive, albeit with smaller increases. Stanley, Black & Decker extended its streak to 58 years with a 1% increase, while chemical company PPG announced a 5% increase to extend its streak to 54 years.
We should get some nice boosts in August, with instrumentation company Badger Meter possibly increasing its payout by more than 20%. Financial software company Intuit should continue its pattern of annual increases in the mid-teens, and building materials company Carlisle should announce a boost in the low teens. And two companies with very long-term dividend growth histories will announce their next boosts: utility American States Water and industrial company Dover should extend their streaks to 71 and 70 years, respectively.
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