Nikki Haley is dismissing calls for her to drop out of the 2024 Republican presidential primary after her loss to Donald Trump in New Hampshire on Tuesday, but will her big donors stick with her?
Yes — at least into March, according to one expert on money in politics, Temple University’s Robin Kolodny. That’s even as other analysts are much more bearish on the former South Carolina governor’s prospects.
“If I were one of these people, like the Kochs, and I really, really didn’t want to deal with Trump again, I’m waiting to see what’s going to happen. I wouldn’t pull my money until sometime in March,” said Kolodny, a professor of political science with expertise in campaign finance. She was referring to the powerful Koch network, which has been supporting Haley since November.
The Koch network’s political arm, Americans for Prosperity Action , was in fact quick to issue a statement in support of Haley after the New Hampshire results, saying the results showed that Haley is “closing the gap.” The statement also said AFPA’s teams “will continue talking” to South Carolina voters in support of Haley but acknowledged that she faces a “steeper road” in her home state’s Feb. 24 primary.
Haley lost to Trump by 11 points in New Hampshire, according to an Associated Press tally with 96% of the vote in. That’s after polls on average in the Granite State showed Trump with a 19-point edge, and after Trump won by 30 points in last week’s Iowa caucuses. In South Carolina, Trump currently has a 30-point advantage over Haley, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls.
Another political-finance expert said he thinks it’s not clear if most Haley donors will stick with her at this point.
“Nikki Haley is making her strongest case possible about why she is still a viable candidate and why donors should still invest in her, and Donald Trump is making his case about why he should be treated as the presumptive nominee and money to other candidates should dry up,” said Michael Beckel, research director at Issue One, a nonprofit that aims to reduce the role of money in politics.
“There is a lot of soul-searching going on amongst conservative donors right now, and I don’t know that the writing is on the wall definitively. I think we will still hear both candidates making their cases,” Beckel added.
Billionaire Reid Hoffman isn’t planning to give Haley any more money after the LinkedIn co-founder previously contributed $250,000 to a pro-Haley group, according to a CNBC report citing an unnamed source. And an unnamed donor who has raised more than $100,000 for Haley said they’re done giving to her as well, according to a separate CNBC report.
Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, said in a note that Haley’s New Hampshire performance “probably springs some fundraising dollars from Wall Street in hopes she can continue to compete and rise,” even as Trump remains the likely GOP nominee.
Haley has been expected to take part in a fundraising tour next week that features visits to New York City, Florida, California and Texas. Wall Street billionaires Stanley Druckenmiller, Henry Kravis, Ken Langone and Cliff Asness are due to co-host her fundraising event on Tuesday in New York City, according to a Bloomberg News report.
Her campaign, which has said it raised $24 million in last year’s fourth quarter, is touting a $4 million advertising blitz in South Carolina.
“There are good things happening for Haley. It looks like the fundraising is going to pick up. She’s going to be able to run ads in South Carolina, which will be important,” said Larry Jacobs, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance.
But Stephen Farnsworth, a professor of political science at Virginia’s University of Mary Washington, sounded skeptical.
“People always say they’re never going to back down until they back down,” Farnsworth told MarketWatch. “The reality is the next several days for Haley are going to be daunting. Donors will be less interested. A lot of Republican elites will say that this process is over.”
A history lesson, and why March is key
History suggests Republicans may want a “plan B” like Haley in case of surprises, according to Temple’s Kolodny. She noted that the 1968 Democratic race was rocked by Robert F. Kennedy’s assassination, and the 1972 Democratic ticket had Thomas Eagleton only lasting 18 days as George McGovern’s running mate. With Trump, who is 77, there could be big developments related to his health or his criminal cases, she told MarketWatch.
Kolodny also said there should be a focus on actual delegate hauls so far. Trump has 32 delegates while Haley has 17, and the 12 delegates won by candidates who then dropped out will get reassigned. She suggested Haley donors could wait until after the Super Tuesday primaries on March 5 to make their final decisions. More than a dozen states are due to vote on that day.
“Super Tuesday will be big, because cumulatively half the delegates will be selected after that. So at that point, we can get serious,” Kolodny said.
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