Foreword
This article is based on Fortune magazine’s 2024 survey of 500 Largest U.S. Corporations (F500-IL) (subscription required)
“The Fortune 500, in its 70th year, ranks the biggest U.S. companies by revenue. In total, Fortune 500 companies represent two-thirds of the U.S. GDP with $18.8 trillion in revenues, $1.7 trillion in profits, and $43 trillion in market value (as of March 28, 2024), and they employ 31 million people worldwide.” This article covers the top profit generating companies in 66 industries.
Any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dogcatcher) analysis. This collection of F500-IL for 2024 is perfect for the dogcatcher process. Below is the July 25 data for the 57 dividend stocks populating those F500IL as parsed by YCharts.
The prices of 3 of the 57 dividend selections made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection a reality for first-time investors.
The 3 Dogcatcher ideal best to buy July 2024 stocks were: Altria Group (MO), Energy Transfer (ET), and AT&T (T).
Those three all live up to the ideal of having their annual dividends from a $1K investment exceed their single share prices. Many investors see this condition as a “look closer to maybe buy” opportunity.
Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 15.64% To 30.75% Net Gains From Ten F500-IL Dividend Stocks Into July 2025
Four of ten top F500-IL dividend stocks by yield were also among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, the yield-based forecast for these May favorites was graded by Wall St. Wizards as 40% accurate.
Estimated dividends from $1000 invested in each of the highest yielding F500-IL stocks, added to the median of aggregate one-year target prices from analysts (as reported by YCharts), generated the following list. (Note: one-year target-prices by lone-analysts were not included.) Thus, ten probable profit-generating trades, projected to July 2025 were:
Nike (NKE) was projected to net $307.46 based on the median of target estimates from 33 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 1% greater than the market as a whole.
ConocoPhillips (COP) was projected to net $279.92 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 26 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 24% greater than the market as a whole.
United Parcel Service (UPS) was projected to net $274.39 based on the median of target price estimates from 29 analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 1% less than the market as a whole.
Energy Transfer LP was projected to net $265.26, based on the median of target price estimates from 17 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 67% greater than the market as a whole.
McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) was projected to net $216.76, based on the median of estimates from 31 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 29% less than the market as a whole.
Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) was projected to net $191.93, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 11 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 5% less than the market as a whole.
Sysco Corp. (SYY) was projected to net $187.17, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from 15 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 18% greater than the market as a whole.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) was projected to net $185.73, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 22 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 28% less than the market as a whole.
AT&T Inc. was projected to net $163.01 based on dividends, plus the median of target estimates from 25 brokers, less transaction fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 42% less than the market as a whole.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) was projected to net $156.38, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 21 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 14% under the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 22.28% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. These gain estimates were subject to average risk/volatility 1% less than the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the “dog” moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, “underdogs”.
63 F500-IL In July Per Analyst Target Data
65 F500-IL July Yields
Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Ten Top F500-IL By Yield
Top ten F500-IL by yield in July represented eight of eleven Morningstar sectors. First place was held by the first of two energy members, Energy Transfer LP [1], the other placed ninth, Exxon Mobil (XOM) [9].
The lone consumer staples representative placed second, Altria Group [2] Then, third place went to communication services, namely, AT&T [3]. A lone industrials member placed fourth, United Parcel Service [4].
A lone healthcare representative placed fifth, CVS Health (CVS) [5]. Utilities took the sixth position, Southern (SO) [6].
Seventh place was claimed by the first of two technology representatives, International Business Machines (IBM) [7]. The other techie placed eighth, Cisco Systems [8].
Finally, tenth place was claimed by the lone real estate representative, Prologis (PLD) [10], to complete the 2024 top ten F500-IL dividend pack in July.
Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Top F500-IL In July Showed 13.25% to 29.67% Upsides, and (31) Six -0.07% to -6.61% Downsiders
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a “market sentiment” gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, median analyst target price estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.
Analysts Forecast A 15.32% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced, of 10 F500-IL Dividend Stocks From July
Ten top Fortune F500-IL yield (dividend / price) results, provided by YCharts, produced the following ranking.
As noted above, top ten F500-IL stocks screened 7/25/24, showing the highest dividend yields, represented eight of eleven in the Morningstar sector scheme.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced Of The Top Ten Highest-Yield F500-IL (32) Delivering 14.84% Vs. (33) 12.87% Net Gains by All Ten Come July 2025
$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten F500-IL by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 15.32% more gain than $5,000 invested as $0.5k in all ten. The eighth lowest-priced selection, United Parcel Service, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 27.44%.
The five lowest-priced top-yield F500-IL for 2024 Dividend Dogs as of July 25 were: Energy Transfer LP; AT&T; Cisco Systems; Altria Group; CVS Health, with prices ranging from $16.13 to $58.65.
Five higher-priced F500-IL Dividend Dogs as of June 26 were: Southern Co; Exxon Mobil; Prologis; United Parcel Service; International Business Machines, whose prices ranged from $81.66 to $191.98.
The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O’Higgins’ “basic method” for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 15% to 85% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change.
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.
Afterword
This article features Fortune 500 Industry Leaders and focuses on the top 30 for July. Therefore, near half the original list of 57 dividend paying companies is neglected. To remedy this condition, the following is provided
A Complete List of 66 Fortune 500 Industry Leaders for 2024
(Stocks are grouped alphabetically by ticker, in ascending order.) The bluish-greenish tinted stocks are Sector Leaders. The three wine-tinted listings are privately owned, or foreign exchange listed stocks not included in the YCharts listings.
If somehow you missed the suggestion of which stocks are ripe for picking at the start of this article, here is a reprise of the list at the end:
The prices of 3 of these 66 F500-IL for June made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more viable for first-time investors.
Those three all live up to the ideal of having their annual dividends from a $1K investment equal or exceed their single share prices. Many investors see this condition as “look closer to maybe buy” opportunity.
How All Ten Top F500-IL Stocks Could Become Ideal Fair Priced Dogs
Three of the top ten F500-IL stocks in July 2024 were priced less than the annual dividends paid out from a $1K investment. The dollar and percentage differences between recent and fair prices are detailed in the top chart. Three ideal fair-priced stocks plus the seven at current prices are shown in the middle chart. Finally, the fair pricing of all ten top dogs conforming to that ideal is the subject of the bottom chart.
With renewed downside market pressure to 50.5%, it is possible for all ten highest-yield F500-IL stocks, to become fair-priced with their annual yield (from $1K invested) meeting or exceeding their single share prices. This pack got a nice head-start with three of ten already fair priced.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by YCharts. Dog image:Open source dog art from dividenddogcatcher.com.
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